The myth of The Long Tail

The theory of The Long Tail is coming under increased scrutiny as some people are starting to doubt whether the theory works or is only applicable to a few very succesful giant e-tailers like Amazon.

It’s an interesting debate, and several issues suggest that it has merit. Let’s try to examine three of the most important ones, as I see it.

First there is the issue of a premium on scarcity. Everyone who has ever tried to set up an event or make a promotion knows that for some reason interest is bigger when there’s a price label attached to what you do. In other words people are looking for scarcity - to obtain something that not everyone can have (if for no other reason then for the lack of funds). This suggests that commercial viability lies in being able to charge and create scarcity and thus in the head of the tail.

Second there is the issue of the feeling of demand. Which is more appealing? Something I can have or something that I want, as Seth Godin puts it in a thought provocing post? If I can have something, ie from the tail, it becomes less interesting to me. Its importante decreases. But if I want something, it becomes important to get it. Again it becomes a matter of scarcity that drives me towards the head of the tail.

The third and final thing is supplying to sustain existence in the long tail. It’s a breakthrough idea that you can get access to markets without the constraints of middle men or bricks’n'mortar stores. But even if you have access to the market, does that guarantee you any success? If what you do or you produce has a very limited market, and this market has to cover the cost of producing what you do, can you make it sustainable? Can you make a living off of it? Some maybe. But not all.

All in all there’s enough evidence to suggest that the theory of The Long Tail is indeed that - a beautiful theory. I won’t argue that it works for Amazon and other e-tailers who cater towards providing infinite choice. Because it does and it’s great.

It’s just a realization that The Long Tail may not be for everyone.